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Do not give in to Evil, but proceed ever more boldly against it

Sunday, August 1, 2010

Facing The Arithmetic

...We lost fifty per cent more men than did the enemy, and yet there is sense in the awful arithmetic propounded by Mr. Lincoln. He says that if the same battle were to be fought over again, every day, through a week of days, with the same relative results, the army under Lee would be wiped out to its last man, the Army of the Potomac would still be a mighty host, the war would be over, the Confederacy gone, and peace would be won at a smaller cost of life than it will be if the week of lost battles must be dragged out through yet another year of camps and marches, and of deaths in hospitals rather than upon the field. No general yet found can face the arithmetic, but the end of the war will be at hand when he shall be discovered (emphasis added)...

-- Mark E. Neely, Jr., The Last Best Hope of Earth: Abraham Lincoln and the Promise of America (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1993), at p. 74


One crucial shortcoming in many discussions about the Gathering Storm is any insight into the relative balance of forces between the Bad People and Team Freedom. Mike has done yeoman's work in articulating a baseline number for Team Freedom in his doctrine of the Three Percenters, but I was happy to have a reader hurl the following note on the OpFor's arithmetic over the transom last week:

CA,
Being an engineer, everything I do and think of comes down to a numbers game. I started wondering about the odds we face in the event of an emergency and this is what I have come up with. Let me know what you think. Did I miss anything or do I have any wrong assumptions?

We’ve all seen the numbers of guns and ammo sold over the last couple of years. This should be enough to convince everyone that we are in good shape if Team Tyrant decides to get too froggy with Team Freedom. But just in case it isn’t, let me demonstrate some more numbers. I live in a fairly heavily populated area in the northeast with over 1 million people in my AO.

Assuming no desertions, no special security details, and few casualties, my town can put 60 officers on the beat at one time if pressed. Normally, it has 30 on patrol. This is in an area of 60 square miles. The county can possibly put out 200 if pressed, in an area of over 600 square miles. The state patrol has less than 2,000 officers total. Assume that it can put out 900 at one time. The area of [opsec] is about [opsec] square miles. All of the military’s ground forces, Army and Marine, active and reserve, are about 1.6 million. Assume that 800,000 are available for actual security duty in a land of over 3.5 million square miles. Federal law enforcement has about 100,000 members nationwide. If you add up all of these numbers, it works out to be about 1.6 enforcers per square mile.

Note that the numbers I have given are extremely optimistic. The real numbers that will be available are actually a lot lower. As you can see, there will be a lot of territory that is unsecured by the O’s minions (a/k/a Satan’s lackeys). In practice, the only areas that will be/can be secured will be the larger cities and major transportation routes, with significant weaknesses even on those routes. This will leave the countryside and the smaller towns in which to live and operate with relative freedom.

Don’t sweat the drones, planes, etc.. If they cover enough area, they won’t have resolution to see everything that is going on down below. If they focus in, they can’t see the vast majority of territory. It’s sort of like killing ants. For everyone they kill, far more go on with freedom’s mission. Our results in Afghanistan and Iraq prove this.

Perhaps most importantly, the territory that will be controlled by Team Freedom will have much of the food and water supply if the current cold war goes hot.

Now, here’s the downside. If we have a total meltdown, i.e. TEOTWAWKI, anyone with an ounce of sense can see that the security forces will be just about useless. Put together a tribe a la John Robb and do it now, because no help will be coming from outside.

Prepare like there is no tomorrow -- because if you don’t, there won’t be a tomorrow for you.


Two quick thoughts, and further discussion is invited in comments:

1) To me, these numbers mean that large-scale foreign intervention to support anti-constitutional forces is inevitable. There's no other way for the G to overcome the traditional defender's advantage, especially if Team Freedom studies, learns, and applies its Lind/4GW lessons.

2) The following related discussion will be helpful in explaining this issue to folks who are still crawling:

Imagine the total number of lawbreakers (i.e., people who commit either crimes against property or persons) in your local jurisdiction. This number will be the denominator in a ratio we are constructing. The numerator will be the total number of law enforcement officers on duty in that jurisdiction. The numerator divided by the denominator will give you a "normal times" ratio of potential enforcement capacity. One could get more funky and add variables such as subgeographies, time/shift differentials, etc., but the simple version will suffice for now (and my fourth-grade math skills).

Now imagine that same ratio after a series of large-scale disruptive events. Think about what will happen in your area to the number of potential lawbreakers. Contemplate the incremental LE resources needed to maintain a steady enforcement capacity, given that increased lawbreaker population, as well as the likelihood that those incremental resources will in fact be available. Now consider also the depletion of LE resources caused by the disruptive event(s), both from casualties and/or the very human need for cops to take care of their own families first
.

Got a tribe yet?

28 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Beginning to wonder if this is like y2k. Lots of folks claim it's going to be the end of the world and then exactly nothing happens, except the clock turned over to 2000. (gee, that was anti-climactic, right?) California, Michigan, Chicago, Detroit? Maybe. I think large swaths of the US will be life as normal.

August 1, 2010 at 2:43 AM  
Anonymous Defender said...

Reassuring.
If they want to bring in foreign troops or law enforcement, well, we've seen how our own treat people when they're even from a different U.S. STATE, during the Katrina Konfiscations.
I hope they'll continue to wear their home country's uniforms. It'll save time.

August 1, 2010 at 2:58 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

On the subject of large scale foreign intervention, I believe that this is most likely. Note the nations to whom Barry has been kissing up. Does anyone think that Western Europe will be providing troops? Expect to see troops from various Muslim, Latin American, Asian, and African armies deployed. Now that subject is on the table, anyone remember where some of the worst war crimes have been committed?

August 1, 2010 at 4:22 AM  
Blogger Loren said...

To add:

Our enemies are haughty, proud, narcissistic, self-important, etc. They won't be going without their security. If someone tells them they need more security, they will make sure they get it, to the detriment of everyone else.

One man with your nifty folding rifle can make this happen--all they need is a constant threat and they'll pull cops off the street to sit in their yard, stand outside their office, etc. Think about it: one of us, or two or three, can pull twenty or more of them away from the "temporary autonomous zones" in Robb's speak. I'm sure someone who knows more about this sort of security can refine my thoughts, but I think the point is there.

They will need large security details to protect against undefined, diffuse threats. Every Blackwater guy checking a limo for bombs is one that's not patrolling the countryside. This is classic systems disruption--even "failed" attacks are sucessful, and the risks are reasonably low.

How's that sound? Don't forget we're not talking about the Badghad green zone here--cities, where most targets for this will be, can't be cut off like that.

August 1, 2010 at 5:30 AM  
Anonymous frosty2 said...

The question that has long been on my mind is this. What would be the long term persistence of a government force turned against it's people. I believe that it is reasonable to think that a military action would be difficult to sustain because of "The Letters." Can you imagine the moral of the troops after receiving communications from home detailing the harm done to fathers, mothers, siblings, relatives and friends by the forces they serve? Yes, in the short term the troops will go out and put down a riot and "restore order" but a sustained fight against their own families and friends... not likely.

August 1, 2010 at 6:06 AM  
Anonymous Justin said...

Foreign troops?

Many things may not lead to blood on the streets. This will, without a doubt.

That GS rifle sounds like a really neat idea.

Justin
III

August 1, 2010 at 9:44 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Sounds a lot like the progression of the plot line in PATRIOTS by James Wesley Rawles. Not that I take any comfort in that at all, the die off in that story and our future will be god awful.

August 1, 2010 at 11:10 AM  
Blogger Ryan said...

The thing about drones is that they don't need to see everything all at once to be really valuable. They are used to prep for operations, clear routes and do surveillance based upon pattern analysis and other intelligence. I know drones are doing a lot of huge things for us in Afghanistan.

If any of that applies to potential operations in the US is an unknown. I hope it doesn't happen.

August 1, 2010 at 12:41 PM  
Anonymous GardenSERF said...

Speaking as someone who has military experience, seen the breakdown of a nation first-hand, and has an academic background in the politics behind the breakup of Eastern Europe and the old Soviet Union:

The scenario of the tyrannical federal government vs a single army of good-guy militia (run by who?) is not accurate regarding how things would happen. In all likelihood there will be more than two sides in a New Civil War scenario (BTW, study up on what happened in MO during the last War Between the States and then ask yourself what would happen if similar problems were spread out in each state throughout the nation). The breakup of Yugoslavia offers a good model of what could happen here in a political/military scenario, but we could slowly burn out like the USSR did with only fighting on the fringes.

Likewise, a national breakup and civil war could follow old economic regional lines rather than racial lines as posed earlier on this blog. However, there would have to be a precipitating event for an actual hot civil war --triggered by either a hostile foreign power and/or an inside faction within the US government. I've explored such a scenario in-depth in the "Operation SERF" series.

Many state governors and military personnel would be opposed to some pencil neck in DC bringing foreign troops onto US soil and "giving" them some authority (use of force) to control American citizens. That alone would split the states and the military.

August 1, 2010 at 1:00 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

There are already an additional 7 million soldiers ready for deployment. They are skilled, motivated, and they are unencumbered by any oath to uphold the Constitution.

All they are waiting for is a conditional presidential pardon.

August 1, 2010 at 1:32 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

The traditional method of empires is to station foreign troops in an occupied area. They are more willing to do the killing needed to keep an area under control. An Iranian or Mexican is much more likely to shoot an American than another American.

Next factor. Not meaning to be paranoid, but has anyone considered the large number of illegal aliens in this country, especially the Mexicans and Chinese? The Mexicans are already equipped and organized into drug gangs. The Chinese have been through training with the PLA. In addition, if I remember correctly, large quantities of Chicom weapons were smuggled in back in the 90's. Many of these weapons were found. This includes RPG's and weapons with the happy switch. Just hand out these weapons and boom, you have an occupying army. No need for obvious movement accross the ocean and, even better, since these people have lived here for years, they know the area the will operate in.

August 1, 2010 at 2:41 PM  
Blogger Crustyrusty said...

Foreign troops would be the easiest option for us to deal with. There might be hesitation in taking out one of your neighbors, but blue helmets and berets make lovely high-contrast targets.

August 1, 2010 at 3:19 PM  
Blogger Dakota said...

Good article, however I would not be too optimistic about the food supply. Agriculture has a voracious appetite for fuel and if the corn don't get planted and hay put up animals will die in the winters of the fly over Northern states. I have read that HRWW (Hard Red Winter Wheat) stocks were very low before this harvest which should be winding up about now and Spring Wheat beginning.

If the fuel supply is choked off then it will disrupt agriculture. How much the farmers will tolerate has been proven by their reliance on government programs. However nothing says that it would be safe to go to the field either. It may be best to not have agriculture operating to someone.... I'm guessing government.

If the government calls in it's grain that is "sealed" and stored on site by the government and stock piled in government storage facilities most of it will end up there. The farmer will honor his contracts and haul it in. Also never mind if there is room to store the grain .... they can dump it on the ground and let it spoil rather than have it out there letting the States or areas be independent of government food stocks. All this is after all about power, I remember reading in the Council on Foreign Relations publication the following..."you can control transportation and commerce with oil, you can control people with food" .... I have never forgotten that. We would be wise to remember that also in our preparations for feeding ourselves and loved ones.

August 1, 2010 at 3:52 PM  
Blogger jdege said...

Y2K wasn't a problem because thousands of programmers each spent thousands of hours working to make sure it wouldn't be a problem, in thousands of different systems.

Had this work not been done, things would have been very different.

We may be facing a societal collapse. We may not. It may well be that the very actions taken by those who are fearful of a societal collapse will prevent it from happening.

I don't see that as a bad thing.

August 1, 2010 at 5:10 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Y2K remediation efforts began in roughly 1995/1996 and cost perhaps several billion dollars.

Nothing happened because unimaginable preparation -- replacing software (thus the explosion of SAP/Oracle), replacing hardware, patches, updates, testing, inventorying...

The Y2K effort is lambasted as a bust it history will consider it one of the great logistical achievements of man.

Do not -- DO NOT! -- underestimate the Y2K problem and do not use it to minimize the multidimensional catastrophes facing us today.

Sign me,
Joe of the Mountain
High-end Consulting Dude

August 1, 2010 at 10:06 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

My primary concern is the automatism of their surveillance capabilities.

August 1, 2010 at 11:23 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

One thing that you all need to be aware of is the fifth column. This will be an army of snitches bought and paid for with Barry's freebies. Too many Lotus Eaters are walking around right now oblivious to what is about to happen. They will be ready and willing to sell out anyone for a bag of food, OBAMABUCKS, or whatever incentive Rahm and his minions have dreamed up.
Plan in secret, as best as you can. Relocate if you can. Screen your tribe thoroughly. Keep focused, and pray that I am wrong.

August 1, 2010 at 11:43 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Careful who you talk with and what you say. I am sure the gov't has many "lookers & listeners" out there just looking and listening taking notes. How many criminals have been "hired" by the gov't to look and listen. All it would take is a deal to not prosecute if they kept notes on who is saying what and what about. It is a dangerous world out there now-a-days

August 2, 2010 at 3:06 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Careful who you talk with and what you say. I am sure the gov't has many "lookers & listeners" out there just looking and listening taking notes. How many criminals have been "hired" by the gov't to look and listen. All it would take is a deal to not prosecute if they kept notes on who is saying what and what about. It is a dangerous world out there now-a-days

August 2, 2010 at 3:10 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Careful who you talk with and what you say. I am sure the gov't has many "lookers & listeners" out there just looking and listening taking notes. How many criminals have been "hired" by the gov't to look and listen. All it would take is a deal to not prosecute if they kept notes on who is saying what and what about. It is a dangerous world out there now-a-days

August 2, 2010 at 3:14 AM  
Anonymous Christian Patriot III said...

Loren - re: not being able to cut off cities... Interesting you should mention that as I have noticed many local loops around major cities now include "noise barriers" along both sides for long stretches. This makes an effective deterrent to crossing the beltway except at choke points like under- and over-passes, rail lines and water ways. Many major cities in our country have the surrounding infrastructure to allow them to be buttoned up just by using the traffic cams to monitor for belt way crossers and posting check points at all points of entry to outer loop. Funny how this part of the federal highway system has methodically emerged over the past several decades.

I also agree with other comments regarding fifth column elements. Convicts, illegals and welfare milking gang elements all come to mind. Taken into account, we will be lucky to not devolve into a medieval mode before China or a Muslim Caliphate comes to occupy us.

Another point to consider is air power and lines of supply. Any student of war and history will know that effective control of an area means an uninterrupted line of supply and air support. Team Freedom could possibly assemble supply lines, but we lack competitive air support.

Air support is the deciding factor. We do not have what is available to Leviathan.

So, guerrilla warfare we could do with hit and fade operations, but until a leader emerges and significant command and control infrastructure coalesces, that's all we could do. Doable, but long, drawn out, bloody... possibly a positive for the hearts and minds effort but without media control, we operate at a disadvantage there.

So, militarily, we're not looking real good if a competent puppet master starts pulling the strings of the emerging tyranny. I do not think BO is competent or up to the task though he may be desirous of it and what it would mean. RE I think is more capable and willing. Competency is in question. HRC is probably the most capable along with her existing team.

In the end it all comes down to hearts and minds. If we can win those in the right places, we'll have the things we need to preserve freedom and liberty.

August 2, 2010 at 4:00 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

"If you add up all of these numbers, it works out to be about 1.6 enforcers per square mile."

No. Scouts for Team Regulator include anyone who is willing to report a neighbor cutting hair out of their home contrary to zoning and licensing, or an employer paying cash under the table. The better the intel, the fewer armed enforcers you need. Go back and count all the unconverted members of the Fudd Republican voters, the hatchback liberal Democrat voters, the teachers and city workers, and the busybody old ladies at church. Remember that 90% of German adults voted to make Hitler dictator.

"To me, these numbers mean that large-scale foreign intervention to support anti-constitutional forces is inevitable"

That's the one thing that's not going to happen. Domestic disturbances being what they are, everybody here will put aside their differences to drive off the foreign-looking troops.

"Imagine the total number of lawbreakers (i.e., people who commit either crimes against property or persons) in your local jurisdiction."

We call those people "voters", and they will not stop until they've emptied the public treasury and national Credit rating. Engineer, could you rework your numbers from a libertarian perspective?

August 2, 2010 at 4:22 AM  
Anonymous Dennis308 said...

Dose anyone remember what Obumer said about at the Graduating Ceremony of one of the Northern Progressive Colleges having a Civilian Force as Strong and as Well Equipped as the Military. I assure you He Was´t Talking About a Constitutional Militia. More like a Hitler Youth Organization? Maybe Foreign Trained buy One of Our New Allies.....?

Dennis
III
Texas

August 2, 2010 at 8:49 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Lots of things to consider here. I sure appreciate all of your contributions & comments.

Has anyone here read & analyzed George Washington's Vision ? It's a fascinating read - purportedly a true account of a vision / dream George Washington was shown during the dark days of the War for American Independence.

http://www.ushistory.org/valleyforge/washington/vision.html

Take a look for yourself. I was struck by the latter part, the 3rd conflict mentioned.

(The first was that present war, the second, obviously the War between the States, the the third seems not have yet occured.)

Especially the part where it speaks of "men marching by land, and sailing by sea from Europe, Asia & Africa" - sounds like massive foreign troops on our shores.....read for yourself.

Peter, maybe this 'George Washington's Vison' is worthy of a entire post ?

May the LORD send repentance to save this wayward nation,

Chaplain Dave
East Texas

August 2, 2010 at 7:15 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

for those who might remember seeing the film "Red Dawn", and read the book "Patriot", just let the helmets show up, they will make neat targets. Praise the Lord and pass the ammo.
VETTOM
III

August 2, 2010 at 8:48 PM  
Anonymous Falco said...

It's not about numbers. It never has been. It's about heart. The German people, and all of Europe, had the numbers to overthrow Hitler and his regime. They didn't have the guts. The Hungarians had enough people to overthrow the Communist regime. They didn't have the guts. The Iraqis all had AK-47's under Saddam. They didn't have the will to overthrow him.

10,000,000 armed people who haven't got the guts to stand up when it's time to stand up are 10,000,000 wastes of able bodies. Oh, but they've got guns.

August 3, 2010 at 1:06 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Falco hit it on the head.
10,000,000 guns with no one to operate them is a waste! And look around you. How many of your friends or family are willing to use them. MOST people I know refuse to admit how bad things are. They quote Fox News ad nauseum and how the world will shit Skittles after the November elections. Happy days will be here again. So there's no use getting your panties in a wad now when everything will rejuvenate itself in a few months. And I keep asking over and over, 'What's your backup plan if you don't win in November?"
"Do you really think an election will turn this country around?" They can't think past that. It's too big and scary to even comprehend, if you can comprehend how bad things really are.
So here we sit in a nation of people who refuse to admit that things are really bad. Like the elephant in the livingroom. Even the rolls of unemployed still want to believe there is a job just waiting for them right around the corner and they can get their house back. And like the Y2K scare, this isn't real. My own sister thinks her 401K will fill back up when the stock market comes back.
So it's a matter of waiting to see what happens after the big bang, and plan accordingly.

August 3, 2010 at 4:27 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dakota mentioned food. Made me think of all the places they've been "mindlessly" cutting off water supplies to save the sacred blennies, or whatever. Oregon, California, I'm pretty sure there have been others. Turning productive regions into dustbowls. Too paranoid?

III

August 5, 2010 at 9:57 AM  

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